

Genentech's (DNA, Market Outperform) Avastin performed strongly in terms of patient numbers in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) achieving a record high for the second consecutive month. Increases were seen in first and second line therapy and performance was especially robust in the second line setting where patient numbers grew by almost 60%. Market share is now 26.8%, 15.3% and 12.7% in first, second, and third lines, respectively. In metastatic breast cancer (mBC), patient numbers were essentially flat after the marked decline seen last month. Market share in the first line setting declined to 14.1%. Following the recent accelerated approval of the drug in first-line (previously untreated) HER-2 negative mBC, we expect solid growth in this setting going forward. In metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC), decreases in terms of total patients in first and second line settings were mitigated by strong performance in the third line plus setting. Market share grew to 36.1% in third line plus and 66.0% in second line, while it declined to 62.5% in first line. Our proprietary forecasting tool (see page 4) indicates that Avastin will post 1Q08 sales of $638MM, well ahead of our estimate of $632MM and the Street consensus estimate of $622MM.
Herceptin recovered in terms of patient number and market share in the mBC setting; as did the number of patients this month in this setting. Increases in patient numbers were seen in all lines of therapy and increases in market share were seen in first and second line settings. Our proprietary forecasting tool (see page 5) is projecting Herceptin 1Q08 sales of $340MM, ahead of both our and Street consensus estimates of $331MM and $329MM, respectively. GlaxoSmithKline's (GSK, Not Rated) Tykerb declined in terms of patient number, although market share increased to 7.8%. The greatest use of Tykerb continues to be in third line setting where market share increased to 14.9%.
Celgene's (CELG, Market Outperform) Revlimid showed strong performance this month in multiple myeloma. There was a small decline in the number of patients on therapy in the front line setting, however robust growth was seen in second and third line settings. Overall market share in myeloma increased to 27.1%, with market share in first line increasing to 24.9%.Thalomid declined M/M in terms of total patients, where a 12-month low was reached. Market share is now 43.1%, 22.6% and 4.5% in first, second and third line therapy respectively. Millennium's (MLNM, Not Rated) Velcade increased M/M, driven by strong performance in first line therapy. Market share increased to 17.7% and 58.2% in first and second lines, while declining to 49.0% in third line therapy. Within MDS, Revlimid declined in terms of patient numbers and market share, which is now 20.3%. According to our proprietary forecasting tool (see page 6), Revlimid is tracking ahead of our 1Q08 estimate of $208MM, and in line with the Street consensus estimate with a forecast of $216MM. Velcade is tracking to a forecast of $83MM (see page 7), ahead of the Street consensus estimate of $79MM.
Pharmion's (PHRM, Not Rated) Vidaza increased M/M by approximately 5% in terms of total patients treated in the MDS space, with market share declining to approximately 50%. Our Oncology Inc. based sales forecast is pointing to Vidaza sales of $36MM for the quarter (see page 8), below the Street consensus estimate of $40MM. SuperGen's (SUPG, Market Perform) Dacogen increased M/M by more than 17% in terms of total patients treated, and market share increased to 26%.
ImClone's (IMCL, Market Outperform) Erbitux increased M/M in terms of number of patients treated in mCRC. Overall market share of Erbitux in mCRC patients remained flat at 13.3%. Increases in patient numbers were seen in second and third lines of therapy. The greatest use of Erbitux is in third line therapy where it holds a market share of approximately 30%. In head and neck cancer (SCCHN), patient numbers rebounded from the declines seen last month with increases seen in all lines of therapy. Overall market share is now 35.6%, with the greatest use of the drug in the first line setting where market share remained stable at 35.4%. Our proprietary forecasting tool (see page 9) indicates that Erbitux is tracking below our aggressive 1Q08 estimate of $199MM but in line with the Street consensus estimate with a sales forecast of $189MM. Amgen's (AMGN, Market Perform) Vectibix continues to decline in mCRC with both patient numbers and market share reaching six month lows. Vectibix is tracking in line with our estimate of $31MM, with our forecast pointing to sales of $30MM (see page 10) for the quarter.
Onyx's (ONXX, Not Rated) Nexavar experienced a moderate increase M/M in total patients in renal cell cancer (RCC), as market share increased to 26.7%. Increases in patient numbers and market share were seen in both first and second line settings. In tumor types outside of RCC (the majority of which is hepatocellular carcinoma), the number of patients receiving Nexavar declined by approximately 2% and appears to have stabilized. According to our proprietary forecasting tool (see page 11), Nexavar appears poised to post 1Q08 sales of $49MM, slightly below the Street consensus estimate of $52MM. Elsewhere in the RCC space, Pfizer's (PFE, Not Rated) Sutent increased slightly this month in terms of the number of patients on therapy, while overall market share remained stable at 51.2%. Market share increased in first line, although it declined in second+ line therapy. Wyeth's (WYE, Not Rated) Torisel was increased slightly M/M in terms of patient numbers, where an increase was seen in first line therapy. Market share of Torisel is currently 8.0% and 25.0% in first and second lines respectively.
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